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Lesson 2 Graphs |
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The United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the media, and Al Gore repeatedly say that
the science of global warming is settled and that only a radical fringe
group of corporate-sponsored scientists disagree with the scientific
consensus that man is causing global warming. Over $50 billion has been
spent to support that believe. However, even as far back as 2003 a
survey
was conducted among all climate scientists (those actually having
climate PhDs and working specifically on climate issues) showed that there
was barely a majority, let alone a consensus that man was causing global
warming. When the question was asked, "was the scientific debate about
climate change over," less than half of the respondents agreed with the
question. An equal number disagreed. This is far from a consensus among
scientists who can actually speak to the issue.
In 2001 a
voluntary petition
was sent to all scientists in the United States stating that, among other
things, "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of
carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in
the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere
and disruption of the Earth's climate." At that time, 17,000 scientists
signed it. When the same petition was sent out in 2008, 31,000 scientists
signed it, almost double the number in 2001. Nine thousand of these had
PhD's in the physical sciences. This compares to only about 60 (not 2500)
that support the IPCC's man-caused theory. More are signing every day. The
IPCC's, media's, and Gore's instance that there is a consensus among
scientists that the science is settled is completely false, designed to hide
the fact that the entire effort is politically, not scientifically,
motivated. Every effort is made to
silence the
dissenters, yet more and more scientists are speaking out because the
actual science supporting man-caused warming is non-existent. |
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Almost all evidence for man-caused global
warming originates with eight climate change models called global climate
models or GCMs. These are very sophisticated models, so sophisticated that
they have to be run on super computers. However, the modelers are not
climate scientists and have to get all their information from climate
scientists. The modelers also admit that although they use thousands of
variables in their models, those variables make up less than half of all the
variables that impact climate. Not only that, every one of these models is
based on the premise that CO2 warming must occur physically in a
certain way
(see below), a way that is now proven not to be what has actually happened.
The earth did not warm in the twentieth century like these models said it
must. |
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The physics of CO2 greenhouse gas warming
are well known.
Most warming will occur
in the mid troposphere at about 8 to 14 kilometers, and in the tropical
zone between about 30o north and 30o south of the
equator. Another area of warming closer to the earth's surface would occur
towards the two poles. All of the climate models have this built into their
equations. That is what the left graph clearly shows. Reality, however,
paints a completely different picture. Temperature data derived from
radiosonde balloons since the
1950s show no warming where climate models and pure physics says it should
warm. This is one of the greatest pieces of evidence that CO2 has not been
the cause of the twentieth century warming. In spite of this, man-caused
warming proponents insist that the modeled forecasts (left) and the
radiosonde reality (right) do agree with each other.
You can judge for
yourself. |
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Earth's temperatures have varied over the
past 11,000 years on roughly a 1500 year cycle. The current warming is no
different than past warming (or cooling), except the current warming is much
less than in the past. In fact, a careful inspection of this graph shows
that each cycle is gradually cooling from the maximum 6 and 10 thousand
years ago. Since most interglacial periods in the past have been 10,000 to
11,000 years in length,
Russian
scientists are now convinced that we are entering the next ice age, not
just a cooling period like that which occurred between the 1945 and 1975, or
the major cooling that occurred during the
Little Ice Age. |
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Another way of looking at the Holocene
period and the end of the last ice age. The Little Ice Age and Medieval
Optimum are clearly visible, as is the gradual cooling trend during the
period. Likewise the current warming is shown to be much less than in the
past. What is interesting in this graph is that the bottom line represents
the amount of ice accumulation. During the tail-end of the last ice age,
very little snow fell because much of the northern oceans were frozen,
denying storms of a source of moisture. When the oceans thawed during the
Holocene period, that moisture source became available and much more snow
fell leading to more ice accumulation. |
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Storms and precipitation form when
warmer, moist air collides with colder dry air. The colder air causes the
warm, moist air to rise, causing the water vapor to condense into clouds and
eventually water droplets which fall as rain or snow (if cold enough). The
greater the difference in temperature between the two air masses, the more
intense the storm. If the difference is very large, the storm will be
violent as in the case of hurricanes and tornadoes. Since the physics of
global warming demand that the mid-elevation and northern latitudes warm
faster than low elevations and latitudes, the temperature differential will
decline, and the number of violent storms should also decline. For instance,
the Little Ice Age had many more violent storms than occurred in the past
100 years. As the earth cools, we can expect more hurricanes and tornadoes
like occurred in the spring of 2008. |
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Hurricanes are violent storms that began
with the same principle as described above. Warm, moist ocean air encounters
cooler air above and begins to rise through the cooler air because it is
lighter. In this case, the temperature differential is great and the warm,
moist air rises ever faster. As the water vapor condenses, it releases heat,
which creates even a greater temperature differential. The coriolis effect
of the earth's rotation causes the rising air mass to begin to rotate. When
the internal winds become strong enough, air mass develops into a tropical
storm and then a hurricane. It all depends on a strong temperature
differential between the warm sea surface and a cold middle troposphere.
While it is true the ocean surface warms with greenhouse warming, the
mid-troposphere warms even faster,
reducing the temperature gradient and the threat of a hurricane. While this
is poorly understood, the number of hurricanes declined during the period
when rapid warming was occurring during the last 30 years of the twentieth
century. Research at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
has shown that global warming
increases wind shear, which also decreases the number and violence of
Hurricanes. See NOAA
wind shear animation. |
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