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Graphs n' Charts

 

Lesson 1 Graphs

Lesson 2 Graphs

Lesson 3 Graphs

 

               Lesson 2 Graphs

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The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the media, and Al Gore repeatedly say that the science of global warming is settled and that only a radical fringe group of corporate-sponsored scientists disagree with the scientific consensus that man is causing global warming. Over $50 billion has been spent to support that believe. However, even as far back as 2003 a survey was conducted among all climate scientists (those actually having climate PhDs and working specifically on climate issues) showed that there was barely a majority, let alone a consensus that man was causing global warming. When the question was asked, "was the scientific debate about climate change over," less than half of the respondents agreed with the question. An equal number disagreed. This is far from a consensus among scientists who can actually speak to the issue.

In 2001 a voluntary petition was sent to all scientists in the United States stating that, among other things, "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate." At that time, 17,000 scientists signed it. When the same petition was sent out in 2008, 31,000 scientists signed it, almost double the number in 2001. Nine thousand of these had PhD's in the physical sciences. This compares to only about 60 (not 2500) that support the IPCC's man-caused theory. More are signing every day. The IPCC's, media's, and Gore's instance that there is a consensus among scientists that the science is settled is completely false, designed to hide the fact that the entire effort is politically, not scientifically, motivated. Every effort is made to silence the dissenters, yet more and more scientists are speaking out because the actual science supporting man-caused warming is non-existent.

   
Almost all evidence for man-caused global warming originates with eight climate change models called global climate models or GCMs. These are very sophisticated models, so sophisticated that they have to be run on super computers. However, the modelers are not climate scientists and have to get all their information from climate scientists. The modelers also admit that although they use thousands of variables in their models, those variables make up less than half of all the variables that impact climate. Not only that, every one of these models is based on the premise that CO2 warming must occur physically in a certain way (see below), a way that is now proven not to be what has actually happened. The earth did not warm in the twentieth century like these models said it must.

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The physics of CO2 greenhouse gas warming are well known. Most warming will occur in the mid troposphere at about 8 to 14 kilometers, and in the tropical zone between about 30o north and 30o south of the equator. Another area of warming closer to the earth's surface would occur towards the two poles. All of the climate models have this built into their equations. That is what the left graph clearly shows. Reality, however, paints a completely different picture. Temperature data derived from radiosonde balloons since the 1950s show no warming where climate models and pure physics says it should warm. This is one of the greatest pieces of evidence that CO2 has not been the cause of the twentieth century warming. In spite of this, man-caused warming proponents insist that the modeled forecasts (left) and the radiosonde reality (right) do agree with each other. You can judge for yourself.

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Earth's temperatures have varied over the past 11,000 years on roughly a 1500 year cycle. The current warming is no different than past warming (or cooling), except the current warming is much less than in the past. In fact, a careful inspection of this graph shows that each cycle is gradually cooling from the maximum 6 and 10 thousand years ago. Since most interglacial periods in the past have been 10,000 to 11,000 years in length, Russian scientists are now convinced that we are entering the next ice age, not just a cooling period like that which occurred between the 1945 and 1975, or the major cooling that occurred during the Little Ice Age.

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Another way of looking at the Holocene period and the end of the last ice age. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Optimum are clearly visible, as is the gradual cooling trend during the period. Likewise the current warming is shown to be much less than in the past. What is interesting in this graph is that the bottom line represents the amount of ice accumulation. During the tail-end of the last ice age, very little snow fell because much of the northern oceans were frozen, denying storms of a source of moisture. When the oceans thawed during the Holocene period, that moisture source became available and much more snow fell leading to more ice accumulation.

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Storms and precipitation form when warmer, moist air collides with colder dry air. The colder air causes the warm, moist air to rise, causing the water vapor to condense into clouds and eventually water droplets which fall as rain or snow (if cold enough). The greater the difference in temperature between the two air masses, the more intense the storm. If the difference is very large, the storm will be violent as in the case of hurricanes and tornadoes. Since the physics of global warming demand that the mid-elevation and northern latitudes warm faster than low elevations and latitudes, the temperature differential will decline, and the number of violent storms should also decline. For instance, the Little Ice Age had many more violent storms than occurred in the past 100 years. As the earth cools, we can expect more hurricanes and tornadoes like occurred in the spring of 2008.

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Hurricanes are violent storms that began with the same principle as described above. Warm, moist ocean air encounters cooler air above and begins to rise through the cooler air because it is lighter. In this case, the temperature differential is great and the warm, moist air rises ever faster. As the water vapor condenses, it releases heat, which creates even a greater temperature differential. The coriolis effect of the earth's rotation causes the rising air mass to begin to rotate. When the internal winds become strong enough, air mass develops into a tropical storm and then a hurricane. It all depends on a strong temperature differential between the warm sea surface and a cold middle troposphere. While it is true the ocean surface warms with greenhouse warming, the mid-troposphere warms even faster, reducing the temperature gradient and the threat of a hurricane. While this is poorly understood, the number of hurricanes declined during the period when rapid warming was occurring during the last 30 years of the twentieth century. Research at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has shown that global warming increases wind shear, which also decreases the number and violence of Hurricanes. See NOAA wind shear animation.

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